I was recently asked: Does the fact that history shows most great nations end or change after 250 years make you fearful for American Republic? The short answer? Yes. I do fear for the future of our Democratic Republic — and I believe more Americans should, too.
History has a habit of leaving breadcrumbs. Many great civilizations—Athens, Rome, the British Empire—peak or begin to unravel around the 250-year mark (Turchin, 2010). That’s not superstition; it’s pattern recognition. The erosion often begins quietly. It starts not with tanks in the streets but with the collapse of shared values. Public trust and civic responsibility also quietly collapse. And from my vantage point here in Iowa, it’s hard to ignore the signs.
We’ve now witnessed the unthinkable. A sitting president actively undermined an election. They incited a violent insurrection on January 6, 2021. (U.S. House of Representatives, 2022). That day didn’t mark the end of our democratic unraveling—it revealed how far it had already gone. A faction of our political class openly embraced election denial. Instead of facing political extinction, many were rewarded with re-election. Some even gained party leadership.
Even more alarming is how common these behaviors have become. Instead of ostracizing anti-democratic rhetoric, many institutions have normalized it. We’re watching the steady dismantling of democratic norms. This includes voter suppression laws and gerrymandering. It extends to the politicization of the courts. There is also open contempt for the peaceful transfer of power (Levitsky & Ziblatt, 2018). These aren’t abstract concerns. They’re concrete warning signs. Political scientists abroad would sound the alarm if they saw these signs in another country.
At the same time, disinformation is flooding our political discourse. Trust in institutions—from Congress and the Supreme Court to local school boards—is sinking like a stone (Pew Research Center, 2023). Public debates are no longer grounded in shared facts. Instead, they’re fueled by algorithms that reward outrage over accuracy. A functioning democracy cannot survive when its citizens can’t agree on what is real.
Here in Iowa, we used to pride ourselves on being a place of reasoned conversation. We hosted the first-in-the-nation caucus. We had civil debates over coffee in diners and school gyms. But now, our state is no more immune than any other. School boards are being targeted. Book bans are reemerging. Teachers and public health officials are leaving in droves. Families in the Quad Cities and Cedar Rapids struggle with rising medical costs. They also face crumbling infrastructure. Meanwhile, our national political leaders debate gas stoves and conspiracies.
Meanwhile, the most important issues of our time include climate instability. They also include growing wealth inequality, rural healthcare access, and the future of public education. These issues are drowned out by partisan theater.
Let’s be clear: democracies don’t die all at once. They die in pieces. Through apathy, through silence, and through our collective willingness to let “just one more” institution bend until it breaks.
And yes, history shows that when republics reach this stage, they often either collapse or transform into something unrecognizable. But we’re not powerless. We can still choose to be citizens instead of spectators.
That starts with voting—but it does not end there. It means pushing back on disinformation, regardless of political affiliation. It means protecting public education from ideological capture. It means holding local leaders accountable. And it means recommitting to civic virtue—not performative patriotism, but actual civic responsibility.
Fear, in this case, is not weakness. It’s a rational response to a system in distress. It’s also a call to action! If we treat American democracy like it’s inevitable, we will lose it. If we treat it like the fragile, remarkable thing that it is, we have the opportunity to save it.
We don’t have the luxury of assuming “it can’t happen here.” Rome thought that, too.
About the Author
JT Santana has spent most of his adulthood in Iowa. He is a civic advocate and a writer. He focuses on American democracy, education, and the elimination of stigmas that derail life for so many. He is also dedicated to institutional reform.
References
Levitsky, S., & Ziblatt, D. (2018). How democracies die. Crown Publishing Group.
Pew Research Center. (2023). Public trust in government: 1958–2023. https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2023/06/06/public-trust-in-government-1958-2023/
Turchin, P. (2010). A theory for why large-scale societies collapse. Nature, 463, 608.
U.S. House of Representatives. (2022). Final report of the Select Committee to Investigate the January 6th Attack on the United States Capitol. Government Publishing Office.
